21DTE Put BWB
All-put broken-wing fly: +1@32Δ / -2@28Δ / +1@21Δ, wide wing ≈ 2× narrow, entered ~21 DTE for 12-15% of narrow width in credit
Volatility OSP playbook — what to look for & live signal reasoned from code
Profit mechanism. SPX all-put broken-wing fly: +1 @32Δ / -2 @28Δ / +1 @21Δ, widest spread ≈ 2× the narrowest, entered ~21 DTE for a credit of 12-15% of the narrow width. PT = 2% of narrow width; stop = 2× credit.
Look for:
- Credit inside the 12-15%-of-narrow-width band
- Width ratio near 2.0 (delta placement and width rule can conflict)
- No upside risk when filled for a credit
Edge / reality: EXTERNAL claim, NOT verified here: ~80% win rate, ~70% with the stop — no backtest period or trade count given in the source.
Live-signal caveat: Source gives no IV/entry-time filter; bearish regimes are flagged as the weakness but with no quantitative gate.
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