DC Time Machine

Double calendar -> risk-free iron condor (Bernich playbook): 30-40Δ, sell 6-15 DTE / buy 1-4d later, transform at 5-10% profit. Defaults to SPY (our feed has no SPX weeklies); use SPX on a weeklies-capable broker for the true playbook.

Volatility OSP playbook — what to look for & live signal measured

Profit mechanism. Front-IV crush. Sell a rich front-week double calendar into term-structure backwardation, then transform to a risk-free iron condor once the front IV collapses.

Look for:

Front IV > back IV (backwardation) — iv_ratio > 1
30-40Δ short strikes, calls above + puts below spot
Net debit ~$800-1500/contract (1×, SPX scale)
Transform at +5-10%: credit ≥ debit + wing width (Golden Rule)

Edge / reality: MEASURED: backwardation ~25% of days; only ~1 in 3 entries reach a risk-free transform within 2 days — the rest need the 20% stop / EOD management. Tradeable, not a slam-dunk.

Live-signal caveat: Front-vs-back crush now measured at BOTH levels: index (VIX9D/VIX) AND per-strike on real option bars (term_ratio>1 → front crush +1.5vp/2d across SPY/QQQ/IWM). 25Δ skew is captured and accruing; skew→PM measurement pending.

reading live VIX term structure…

Symbol (SPY proxy; SPX needs weeklies feed) Short DTE min Short DTE max Long gap min (days) Long gap max (days) Wing widths (csv pts) Capital-band scale ('auto': SPX=1, SPY=0.1) Fill model Projection: days elapsed Strict (gated only) Top N Sort by

Scanning DC Time Machine — querying live Alpaca option chain…

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