0DTE Iron Fly
ATM 0DTE SPX iron butterfly — 'maria' ($20 wings, PT 25%, 14:30 exit) and 'expected_move' (EM wings, $50-100 PT, 1h hold) rule-sets
Volatility OSP playbook — what to look for & live signal reasoned from code
Profit mechanism. ATM 0DTE SPX iron butterfly, two published rule-sets: 'maria' ($20 wings, enter ~10:30 ET, PT 25% of credit, NO stop, hard exit 14:30) and 'expected_move' (wings = day's EM, enter ~10:00, PT $50-100, exit if price nears a long, ≤1h hold).
Look for:
- Credit a healthy fraction of the wing (fly, not arb)
- Calm / range-bound open (the source's filter is qualitative)
- VRP > 0 before selling the day
- Tight spreads — fills decide the P&L
Edge / reality: EXTERNAL claims, NOT verified here: Helmick ~$111/day/contract since mid-2023; Severson 121 trades 95% win PF 3.85 (2023), 86% PF 1.92 (2024). Both are self-reported. Paper-track fills before sizing.
Live-signal caveat: Range-bound-day filter has no quantitative definition in the source; intraday stop behavior can't be validated on daily bars.
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